Understanding Hot & Cold Numbers in Roulette
In games of chance, despite their completely random nature, many players are still tempted to find patterns in play to inform how they approach the game. That is particularly true in roulette, a game where roulette players are always on the lookout for particular numbers to pick or avoid based on previous rounds as they place their chips on the table, even despite the fact that each number hits with an equal chance. That’s where the concept of hot and cold numbers comes in, the idea that there are regularly occurring outcomes and some that are not turning up when the wheel is spun. So what exactly are hot and cold numbers, and do they actually mean anything to roulette?
What are Hot Roulette Numbers?
Put simply, if a number is hot in roulette, that means it has come up on a number of occasions on the last few spins of the roulette wheel. It doesn’t mean that there’s anything particularly unique about these numbers but, instead, that the frequency of their appearance is making players take notice of them.
For example, say you play for 10 spins, if the number 23 comes up in five of them, you would consider that hot because it landed on 50% of spins. Because of that, some players will use these as part of their betting strategy for roulette.
For example, if a number has come up six times in 20 spins, they will place a wager of the same amount on that number for the next 20 spins, unless it comes up before the 20th. After this, they will take the time to identify the latest hot number and repeat the process.
Debunking Hot Roulette Numbers
Using hot numbers as a strategy is a flawed approach and statistics back this up.
In terms of probability, every number has an equal chance of landing (1/36 in European roulette and 1/37 in American roulette).
Over the course of 100 spins, every number has an equal chance of winning, but some numbers will land more than average; this is simply the random nature of the game.
The more spins that were tested, the more these numbers would balance out.
With this data, you can see how the concept of “Hot” numbers is flawed and more of a myth.
What are Cold Roulette Numbers?
Now, conversely, cold numbers are those that haven’t shown up as often or at all within a window of spins. They can sometimes be referred to as sleepers or overdue. Unlike hot numbers, these are popular with bettors because they represent the opposite side of what is known as “the law of averages”.
As there are a limited amount of numbers that the ball can fall on, 37 in Europe and 38 in the US, it stands to reason that there is a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of a particular number showing. So, players will see that a number hasn’t come up in 75 spins and figure that it’s about time that it landed and bet on it as part of their strategy.
We can apply the same statistics and logic to this theory as we did with the “Hot” numbers, as the odds remain the same. Therefore, the fact that a number might not have appeared in a set number of spins is based purely on random chance, and it stands the exact same chance of appearing in the next spin as the previous spins.
Why Hot and Cold Roulette Numbers are a Myth
While some players may factor hot and cold numbers into their roulette betting strategies, it’s important that anyone looking to play understands that any of these patterns that are observed don’t necessarily reflect an increased or decreased likelihood of any given number coming up in future spins.
On every spin, there is a 1 in 37/38 chance for each number. Just because it hasn’t come up in a long time doesn’t mean that it’s more likely that it will happen next.
That applies to hot numbers, too - it doesn’t matter that it has been drawn more frequently, it still has the exact same odds as coming up in the next draw, and the one after that, and the one after that. At the end of the day, each spin is a brand new start to the wheel, and that’s just how odds work, even when playing online roulette.
The same can be said for popular numbers, too. As is the case with the hot and cold examples, every number on the wheel is as likely as the next to be drawn on every spin. Any thought of a number being more likely to land is a myth due to the equal chance that every segment has to land on the wheel.
As with any game of chance, there are no guarantees when it comes to developing a strategy in roulette. The roulette table doesn’t consider what you think and will continue to throw up numbers at random no matter what past performance suggests, making hot or cold numbers a roulette myth.