Probability of the Dealer Going Bust in Blackjack
In this guide, we discuss the blackjack dealer bust. This includes the probability of it happening, the dealer bust side bet, and the payout odds for a successful blackjack bust bet.
What do we mean by the dealer going bust?
In blackjack, players pit their wits against the dealer by drawing cards up to the value of 21 without going over. Hitting a value of 21 is blackjack, but going above this value means that you’ve ‘bust’ and are out of the game. Players need to make crucial decisions based on their hand and the dealer’s upturned card. They can either ‘stand’ (no action), ‘hit’ (draw a card), ‘double down’ (a high-risk strategy of doubling their original bet and receiving one more card), or ‘split’ (an advanced strategy of splitting a pair to make two hands).
Once the players have completed their actions, it’s the turn of the dealer, whose actions are limited in comparison to those of the player. The dealer must ‘hit’ if their hand value is 16 or under and ‘stand’ when the value is 17 through to 21. If the dealer's hand goes above 21, they have ‘bust’ and all players still in the game with hand values of 21 or less will win and receive the relevant payout in line with their placed bet.
Dealer bust probability
How often does a dealer bust in blackjack? This depends on the rules of the blackjack variant you’re playing, how many decks are in play, and the actions of the players around the table. However, even with these variants in play, the blackjack dealer bust odds are still only affected slightly.
Probabilities come down to the dealer’s upturned card value. This is the determining factor when considering the potential success of a blackjack dealer bust side bet. For example, the dealer is less likely to bust if their upturned card is an ace, 10 or 9. But they are at a distinct disadvantage if their upturned card is a 5 or 6 as they will most likely need to hit, which could force a bust.
Here are the blackjack dealer bust odds dependent on the respective upturned card value:
| Dealer Card | Chance of Bust |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% |
| 3 | 37.56% |
| 4 | 40.28% |
| 5 | 42.89% |
| 6 | 42.08% |
| 7 | 25.99% |
| 8 | 23.86% |
| 9 | 23.34% |
| 10, J, Q or K | 21.43% |
| Ace | 11.65% |
Dealer bust side bet
Depending on the blackjack variant, you may be able to place a side bet that wins if the dealer busts. It’s generally offered to players once the dealer has revealed their upturned card value. Dealer bust payout values differ depending on the blackjack variant being played.
Odds for the dealer bust side bet
Payout odds for the dealer bust side bet vary according to the variant being played. In Playtech’s AllBets Blackjack Live, for example, if the dealer busts with three or four cards, the payout is 2:1. However, if they bust with eight or more cards and the player has a blackjack, the payout reaches 2,000:1.