2025-03-06

Do Baccarat Strategies Work?

Have you ever wondered what the best strategy is for baccarat? Rest assured; you’re not alone. Several of our baccarat community members at 21.co.uk have experienced the same thoughts and so we set out to find a definitive answer.

In a bid to answer this burning question, we embarked on our own investigation into the most famous baccarat strategies to analyse their performance in a controlled environment. Our mission: to see if these strategies really can positively impact gameplay outcomes for the player. If so, which one is the best?

To assist in our quest for discovering the best strategy for baccarat, our expert team created a tailored Python Baccarat simulator for each of the listed strategies with the following rules:

We set a profit target of 5% (Win = >5% profit)
We had a starting bankroll of £1,000 for each strategy
We played a maximum of 1,000 hands per strategy

Here's a brief explanation as to what we mean when we use each term:

Win Rate: This shows how often a strategy led to achieving the 5% profit target.
Bankruptcy Rate: This indicates how often a strategy resulted in losing the entire starting bankroll (£1,000).
In Play Rate: This refers to the percentage of simulations where the strategy neither achieved the profit target nor went bankrupt within the 1,000 hands limit.
Sequence Completion Rate: Specifically for strategies involving number sequences (like Labouchere), this shows how frequently the entire sequence was completed, regardless of profit or loss.

How did the Martingale Strategy fare?

The Martingale Strategy is a negative progression betting system that requires you to double your wager after each loss, but to stake the same bet amount following every win. Here are the main statistics for the strategy:

Win Rate: 86.2%
Bankruptcy Rate: 13.8%

For players with a small bankroll, the Martingale system increases the risk of hitting bankruptcy quicker. The high win percentage implies that this strategy produces a small profit in a relatively short period of time. However, this assumption relies on ‘the gambler’s fallacy’ - the inaccurate belief that past losses make future wins more likely.

Through analysis, we advise extreme caution in adopting the Martingale Strategy. It is a high-risk strategy with a high probability of catastrophic losses, despite the allure of potential quick wins.

Is the Paroli Strategy worthwhile?

The Paroli Strategy is a positive progression betting system that works to maximise winning streaks and minimise losses. The objective is to net three consecutive wins in a row whilst doubling your wager for every win. If the bet is lost, you continue to flat bet one unit until the bet wins. Our analysis found the following statistics:

Win Rate: 66.1%
Bankruptcy Rate: 33.5%
In Play Rate: 0.4%

As a volatile strategy, you should consider setting a lower win to help reduce the risks of bankruptcy; however, this may also lower the win rate. The majority of bankruptcies most likely occur due to extended losing streaks.

It’s clear that doubling-up on every win can rapidly deplete your bankroll, making the Paroli Strategy emotionally challenging with its quick-fire wins and losses. As such, we generally regard it as a short-term strategy.

How does the 1-3-2-6 strategy Impact baccarat gameplay?

Widely known as 'the best baccarat strategy', the 1-3-2-6 Strategy is applied by increasing the best amount following every win. The structure is as follows:

1 unit for the first win.
3 units for the second.
2 units for the third.
6 units for the fourth.
The sequence returns to 1 unit following every loss.

Our analysis resulted in the following statistics:

Win Rate: 67.3%
Bankruptcy Rate: 31.9%
In Play Rate: 0.8%

The results show that the 1-3-2-6 Strategy can produce dramatic bankroll swings which suggests a highly volatile system. Consequently, we would not recommend this strategy to risk-averse players or those with limited bankrolls. Although the 1-3-2-6 system is designed to maximise winning streaks with its escalating bets, this also makes it vulnerable to losing streaks.

Is Fibonacci the best baccarat strategy?

The Fibonacci Strategy is based on the Fibonacci sequence where each number is the sum of its two predecessors. The first ten numbers of the sequence are 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55…and so on. For every loss, you raise your bet amount to the next number in the sequence. Following every win, you go back two numbers in the sequence and bet the relevant amount.

Win Rate: 66.8%
Bankruptcy Rate: 33.2%

The Fibonacci Strategy attempts to find a balance between aggressive positive progression and more conservative approaches. The system aims to recover losses gradually whilst still having the potential to make decent wins while maintaining a moderate variance.

We believe this system is more appealing for those of you who prefer moderate volatility levels. However, the high bankruptcy rate comes from rapidly escalating bets during losing streaks.

Is siding with the banker the best baccarat approach?

When asked what is the best baccarat strategy, a large proportion of players will believe that Siding with the Banker offers the highest chance of winning. This strategy is simple as it just requires you to bet on the Banker in every round.

Win Rate: 66.7%
Bankruptcy Rate: 0.8%
In Play Rate: 31.5%

Siding with the Banker prioritises the preservation of your bankroll. The high win and low bankruptcy rates clearly demonstrate the statistical advantages to the Banker Bet. However, this method requires patience to achieve the desired profit target.

From this, we can see the randomness of Baccarat and the fact that no strategy is foolproof or can guarantee consistent wins in the short term. Siding with the Banker is most effective at minimising losses, but it doesn’t prevent bankruptcy, nor does it have a pattern of ensuring big wins.

How did the Labouchere Strategy perform in our tests?

The Labouchere Strategy is a little more fiddly than other systems and requires the player to choose their own sequence of numbers.

In its simplest terms, if the player opts to win $10, they choose the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 (total = 10). The bet placed is the first and last number added together (5). If it wins, the first and last numbers are crossed out and the sequence continues. If the bet loses, it’s added to the end of the number sequence (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and players continue betting with the original strategy of first and last number.

Win Rate: 1%
Bankruptcy Rate: 35%
Sequence Completion Rate: 95.5%

Whilst the strategy reliably clears sequences, those sequences don’t often translate to substantial profits. The player successfully crossed off all of their numbers in the Labouchere sequence, but didn’t achieve over 5% profit or go bankrupt.

The Labouchere system’s design prioritises the clearing of sequences which typically results in small, incremental gains. However, the low win rate does suggest that gains may be too slow to be truly profitable in the short term.

Likewise, bankruptcy outcomes generally occur within a relatively small number of rounds suggesting that if a losing streak occurs early causing the sequence to grow, the player may not have a big enough bankroll to recover.

We can see that the Labouchere Strategy is less effective at generating large profits within a limited number of hands. It's incredibly high rate of sequence completion confirms its focus on consistent, albeit small, wins. This strategy, as with any other, cannot guarantee wins.

1-3-2-4 Strategy - Is it effective?

The only difference between the 1-3-2-4 Strategy and 1-3-2-6 betting system is that on the fourth win, you bet 4 units instead of 6. This means with the 1-3-2-4 positive progression system, you can avoid losing all your winnings in the fourth round of the sequence.

Win Rate: 65.3%
Bankruptcy Rate: 32.9%
In Play Rate: 1.8%

These results suggest that the 1-3-2-4 Strategy can sometimes lead to more prolonged periods of play. The system is certainly more aggressive than simply Siding with the Banker, but nowhere near as reckless as the Martingale or Fibonacci.

It’s thought that the lower 2 unit bet in the sequence likely plays a part in mitigating losses during losing streaks. Whereas the Martingale and Fibonacci systems can escalate bets rapidly, the 1-3-2-4 Strategy offers a step-down to the betting progression.

In summary - Do the top baccarat strategies really work?

We’ve completed our mission, carried out our simulations and commented on our findings, but do we have an answer for what is the best baccarat strategy? To provide a definitive answer is tricky and, in our attempt to do so, we realised that it is nigh on impossible to place one strategy above another.

Determining what is the best strategy for baccarat will depend on numerous variables including a player’s bankroll, gameplay preferences and style of play. It must be understood that to play high-risk betting strategies, a player’s bankroll needs to be substantial to experience any potential success.

For the risk-taker, the Martingale, Fibonacci and Paroli are potentially the go-to strategies. However, we cannot stress enough that these are highly volatile systems which rely heavily on maximising winning streaks but will also rapidly escalate bets during losing streaks.

Middle of the road but still not suitable for risk-averse players or those with low-value bankrolls, are the 1-3-2-6 and 1-3-2-4 strategies. The 1-3-2-6 system can experience dramatic bankroll swings whereas the 1-3-2-4 system can see prolonged periods of play.

From our results, the most effective strategy for minimising losses appears to be the Siding with the Banker system. However, this strategy does not stop bankruptcy, nor do you see big wins.

Finally, Labouchere Strategy seems to be a safer option but it is less effective at generating large profits.

As we can see, the best strategy for baccarat will vary depending on the player, the risks their willing to take, the bankroll that they can afford to play with, and what they want to get from the game. Not every player wants ‘high-risk, high reward’, nor can they afford it.

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